Can Republican turnout flip a California congressional seat?
In 2022, Democratic Rep. Katie Porter won re-election by 9,133 votes in her Orange County district. California Republicans are putting their hopes on "ballot harvesting" as a way to boost turnout in upcoming elections.
In the last election, about 84% of registered Republicans voted in congressional district 47.
If 84% of registered Republicans turned out, that means 130k votes, which would still not have been enough to beat Porter, if Democratic turnout remained the same.